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Prior tothere were no formal announcements of business cycle turning points. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
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US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions version Contractions recessions start at the peak of a business cycle and end at the trough. Development of the American Economy.
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Economic Fluctuations and Growth. International Finance and Macroeconomics.
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International Trade and Investment. To reduce the chance that data revisions might lead the Committee to reconsider its choice of turning points in the future, the Committee examines a wide array of economic data in addition to GDP, such as the individual components of output and labor market data.
The practice of examining the joint evolution of several key macroeconomic aggregates has been followed by the committee since its inception.
Since Octoberthe Committee also computes, using the past statistical properties of euro-area GDP revisions, the probability that future data revisions might lead it to revise its choice of turning points see the note written by Domenico Giannone for the Committee.
More information about this methodological change is available here.
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A companion paper written by Binnur Balkan for this Committee available here explores the impact this new method would have had on the past findings of this Committee.